Visualising the Context and Contours of India’s Future Wars

Abstract

There is a great deal of study and discussion about the character of future wars. Such a study is absolutely essential so that we are not caught in the trap of fighting the last war and finding ourselves on the losing side. However, it is also recognised that predicting future conflicts is not the easiest of tasks. Perhaps we can heed the words of Michael Howard, the eminent military historian, who said, that, “the purpose of future gazing in war is not to get it right but to avoid getting it terribly wrong."

In assessing the future, we must analyse ongoing conflicts as these provide the best possible lessons in a live environment that cannot
be replicated in wargames and exercises. However, we must also be mindful that wars occur in specific political, geographic, and strategic settings. What happens in one context may not be directly applicable in another. When the US was engaged in wars in Iraq and Afghanistan, it was predicted that the future of warfare would be insurgencies and countering terrorism. Wars between states were considered unlikely, with the greatest danger of such a war primarily in the Middle East and South Asia. The traditional thinking in the Indian military leadership was that conventional wars would be “short and swift.”