Kashmir Militancy After 370

An Assessment of Pakistan’s Proxy War

Abstract

India’s peaceful abrogation of Article 370 was a major geopolitical setback and an intelligence failure for Pakistan. In one stroke, India severely dented Pakistan’s complex and layered infrastructure of militancy. Contrary to expectations when there was no widespread backlash against it, the ISI-masterminds pressurised the local terrorist organisations and Islamist groups to execute a large-scale terror attack or orchestrate a massive civil uprising. However, when they failed, clueless and perplexed Pakistan made drastic strategic and tactical changes in running Kashmir’s militancy to gain its lost ground. The most significant change was to minimise the role of local terrorist groups like Hizbul Mujahidin (HM) and strengthen the foreign terrorist groups like Lashkar-e-Taiba (LeT), Jaish-e-Muhammad (JeM), and Al Badr as the leading groups. While to elude the Financial Action Task Force (FATF) scrutiny, many front organisations were created such as the LeT-led The Resistance Front (TRF) that emerged as the most active offshoot, claiming most terror attacks after 370. Another significant development is the emergence of Turkey as a critical stakeholder in Kashmir’s conflict theatre- working on multiple fronts ranging from militancy, diplomacy to inciting civil unrest. Given this context, the paper discusses and critically analyses the strategic and tactical changes ushered in by Pakistan in Kashmir’s proxy war after the abrogation of Article 370.